Theory &Arbitrage

When I’m balanced on two thin wheels at 30 miles an hour, gauging distance, adjusting course, making hundreds of unconscious calculations every second, that idiot chatterbox in my head is kept too busy to get a word in.

Tim Kreider


1. Mental calmness, composure, and evenness of temper, esp. in a difficult situation.


As a CEO, you have authority over the entire company (though again not true control over every individual’s free actions), but you need to be worried about all the users and customers, competitors, large-scale industry trends, macroeconomic forces, regulators and governments, the press, etc. Thus, being a CEO requires developing extreme mental equanimity in the face of feeling nearly totally powerless - and still being able to make effective decisions using the limited resources you can control.


razor is a principle or premise that allows one to eliminate unlikely explanations for a phenomenon.

Razors include:

  • Occam’s Razor - When faced with competing hypotheses, select the one that makes the fewest assumptions.
  • Popper’s Falsifiability Principle - A theory can be scientific only if it is falsifiable.
  • Hanlon’s Razor - Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
  • Hume’s Razor - Do not multiply necessities without good reason.
  • Hitchens’ Razor - The burden of proof or onus in a debate lies with the claim-maker, and if he or she does not meet it, the opponent does not need to argue against the unfounded claim.
  • Newton’s Flaming Laser Sword - If something cannot be settled by experiment then it is not worthy of debate.


I like products with discreet technology. When they serve me, my real needs, and make my life easier rather than simply changing my days, products like Nest and Apple’s Airport Express are prime examples of technology being applied discretely without obscuring functionality. They’re just ticking away in the background, making your life easier.

Gábor Balogh

When a management team with a reputation for brilliance takes on a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.

— Warren Buffett